IMF releases its world economic outlook
(17 Oct 2007) SHOTLIST 1. Wide shot Simon Johnson, Director, IMF Research Department, walks into IMF news conference with officials 2. Cutaways of reporters 3. Cutaway of cameras 4. SOUNDBITE: (English) Simon Johnson, Director of Research Department, IMF (International Monetary Fund) "Led by robust expansions in major emerging market economies, global growth was rapid through the first half of this year and should again surpass five percent in 2007. But we have marked down our projection for global growth in 2008 by almost half a percentage point to four-point-eight percent in the wake of this recent turmoil." 5. Cutaway of photographers 6. SOUNDBITE: (English) Simon Johnson, Director of Research Department, IMF (International Monetary Fund) "This year we expect China and India will be the two largest contributors to growth, measured in PPP (purchasing power parity) terms. As noted in my foreword, this is the first time, based on the IMF measurements, that this will be the case." 7. Cutaway of press 8. SOUNDBITE: (English) Simon Johnson, Director of Research Department, IMF (International Monetary Fund) "The primary risks to the outlook are on the downside. The principle risk going forward is that prolonged disruptions in financial markets and a possible weakening of asset prices, including but not limited to housing prices, and confidence, could have a more severe impact on economic activity than anticipated in our baseline projections." 9. Cutaway of press 10. Wide shot of news conference STORYLINE: According to latest projections, the global economy should grow soundly this year and next, although the persistence of a credit crunch that has unnerved financial markets worldwide could destabilise markets. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday projected that the global economy would grow by 5.2 percent this year and moderate to 4.8 percent in 2008. The forecast for this year, unchanged from a projection issued in July, would be slightly slower than last year's brisk 5.4 percent global growth. However, the forecast for next year was downgraded by almost one-half percentage point from the summer outlook, reflecting the expected toll of financial market strains. The lower projection, though, would still mark a "solid" performance, the IMF said. At a news conference in Washington on Wednesday, Simon Johnson, the director of the IMF's Research Department, said, "Led by robust expansions in major emerging market economies, global growth was rapid through the first half of this year and should again surpass five percent in 2007." "But we have marked down our projection for global growth in 2008 by almost half a percentage point to four-point-eight percent in the wake of this recent turmoil," he said. The gradual slowing currently envisioned comes as the world economy's biggest player, the United States, is facing a considerable loss of speed. The IMF lowered its forecast for US growth, predicting the economy would expand by just 1.9 percent this year and next, reflecting the impact of the worst housing slump in 16 years and the effects of the credit crisis. If the IMF's forecast for this year proves correct, it would be the weakest growth the US has logged in five years. Although "risks of a recession have risen" in the United States, the IMF said the more likely outcome would seem to be a "more prolonged period" of under-par growth. For the first time based on IMF indicators, China and India are expected to be the two largest contributors to growth. Find out more about AP Archive: http://www.aparchive.com/HowWeWork Twitter: / ap_archive Facebook: / aparchives Instagram: / apnews You can license this story through AP Archive: http://www.aparchive.com/metadata/you...
