IMF releases World Economic Outlook
(21 Apr 2004) 1. International Monetary Fund(IMF) officials walk in 2. Reporters 3. SOUNDBITE: (English) Raghuram Rajan, IMF Chief Economist "The world economy also seems to be by in large in the spring time of recovery. The tentative bugs that we saw six months ago are now blooming in many parts of the world. We have seen a strong rebound in world trade, robust US recovery, continued exceptional strong growth in emerging Asia, especially China and the strong showing for the Japanese economy, that we have seen since 1996." 4. Reporters 5. SOUNDBITE: (English) Raghuram Rajan, IMF Chief Economist "Given this improving environment, we have increased our forecast for global growth by about 1/2 percentage point to four point six percent for 2004 and 4.4 percent for 2005. This means that if all goes as expected, we are in the best two years in over a decade." 6. Reporters 7. SOUNDBITE:(English), Raghuram Rajan, IMF Chief Economist "Of course, in this rosy picture there remains risks to the short term outlook. For instance, oil prices will affect global growth if they're sustained or increased further. Already recognise for every 5 dollar barrel increase above baseline, there remains for one full year, global growth decreases by 0.3 percent. Higher oil prices have reflected in parts from demand. Growth, in the last year , has been especially strong in China and in the United States. And if this is the cause for high oil prices, it will not derail recovery." 8. Reporters 9. SOUNDBITE:(English), Raghuram Rajan, IMF Chief Economist "Part of the pressure on oil prices, has been because of that. The second factor, however, has also been uncertainty. Because oil is produced, in some of the most volatile regions of the world, there has been concern, especially given the news coming out of Iraq and the Middle East that there could be supply disruptions." 10. Reporters 11. SOUNDBITE:(English), Raghuram Rajan, IMF Chief Economist "Thus far we have not seen much direct affect of the Madrid attacks and confidence but you know it is hard to remain confident that that will be the case if something else hits in a different location. So, yes we are worried about terrorism, that is why we are saying again and again, that it's time to rebuild our insurance, to rebuild our buffers that we have, so if something happens, we have the opportunity to deal with it." 12. Wide shot of Rajan STORYLINE: The International Monetary Fund has predicted the global economy, after being battered by recession, terrorist attacks and war, should grow strongly this year and next with growth in the United States hitting the fastest pace in 20 years. The IMF significantly increased its growth forecast both for the United States and the global economy in its latest World Economic Outlook. But IMF Chief Economist, Raghuram Rajan on Wednesday cautioned that this rosy outlook could be undone by further terrorist attacks or a sharp increase in oil prices. Rajan said in its latest global outlook that recent geopolitical uncertainties, however, remain a concern. The IMF predicted the global economy would expand by 4.6 percent this year after growing by 3.9 percent in 2003. Those growth rates are 0.6 percentage point higher than the IMF's last global forecast made in September. For 2005, the IMF sees continued strong global output of 4.4 percent. The IMF is holding its spring meeting this weekend in Washington. Find out more about AP Archive: http://www.aparchive.com/HowWeWork Twitter: / ap_archive Facebook: / aparchives Instagram: / apnews You can license this story through AP Archive: http://www.aparchive.com/metadata/you...
