IMF releases world economic outlook
(22 Apr 2009) SHOTLIST 1. Wide shot of International Monetary Fund panel 2. Cameramen 3. SOUNDBITE: (English) Olivier Blanchard, Director, Research Department, IMF: "Overall we expect the global economy to decline by 1.3 percent in 2009, this is year on year. The weakest performance, by far, of the whole post war period. Growth would return in 2010, helped by strong policies, but would remain just under two per cent, so still well below what we would see as a normal growth rate for the average for the year." 4. Reporters 5. SOUNDBITE: (English) Charles Collyns, Deputy Director of the Research Department, IMF: "There was a very sharp contraction of the US economy in the fourth quarter of last year, as probably a further significant contraction in the first quarter, but there are signs that at least that rate of contraction is now starting to moderate. Consumer demand has been a little bit stronger, so we're expecting growth in consumption in part because of the decline in petroleum prices, in part because of adjustment in social security at the beginning of the year. There's also been some improvement in business confidence, some signs of bottoming out in housing markets but these are very early days. We should not expect a return to growth anytime soon." 6. Reporter 7. SOUNDBITE: (English) Jorg Decressin, Chief of the World Economic Outlook Studies Division, IMF: "Germany has already deployed a lot of fiscal stimulus. Basically, the German government deficit went from balance in 2008 to a deficit of around 5 percent in 2009 so this is significant support to the economy. And the deficit is expected to widen further to around 6 percent in 2010. Now, could they do more? The answer is yes. Germany does have the room to do more. Should they do more at this stage? I think, our view is that they should definitely consider doing so. They should have measures ready to roll out, especially when downside risks materialise." 8. Reporters 9. SOUNDBITE: (English) Charles Collyns, Deputy Director of the Research Department, IMF: "China, like other parts of east Asia, has been hit by the collapse in global trade, the sharp fall in global demand for manufacturing products produced in China. However, we do see China showing some considerable resilience, continuing to grow at around 6.5 percent this year and then accelerating next year." 10. Wide shot of panel ++MUTE++ STORYLINE: The global economy is likely to shrink this year for the first time since World War II, the International Monetary Fund announced on Wednesday. The IMF projected the 1.3 percent drop in a dour forecast. That could leave at least 10 (m) million more people around the world jobless, some private economists said. "By any measure, this downturn represents by far the deepest global recession since the Great Depression," the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook. "All corners of the globe are being affected." The new forecast of a decline in global economic activity for 2009 is much weaker than the 0.5 percent growth the IMF had estimated in January. "Overall we expect the global economy to decline by 1.3 percent in 2009, this is year on year. The weakest performance, by far, of the whole post war period," Olivier Blanchard, the director of the IMF's Research Department said in a briefing. Big factors in the gloomier outlook: It's expected to take longer than previously thought to stabilise world financial markets and get credit flowing freely again to consumers and businesses. Doing so will be necessary to lift the US, and the global economy, out of recession. India's growth is likely to slow to 4.5 percent. Find out more about AP Archive: http://www.aparchive.com/HowWeWork Twitter: / ap_archive Facebook: / aparchives Instagram: / apnews You can license this story through AP Archive: http://www.aparchive.com/metadata/you...
