Monday evening tropical update: Gulf system could drench Louisiana

Chief Meteorologist Chris Franklin says regardless of possibly getting a name, heavy rain will be the primary threat. Rain may be the big focus this week. I say may only because confidence is rather low for our forecast. Here's why. We will be watching a cluster of storms currently south of LA for possible development within the next 5 to 7 days. The environment in the Gulf isn't conducive for a strong or organized tropical system, so that isn't really a threat. The real threat will be rainfall accumulations. Models are all over the place because we don't know: 1. if anything forms, 2. if it does, exactly where would it go, and 3. what would be the systems structure...where would most of the rain be? If it remains a sloppy and unorganized system, rain may be all over the northern Gulf coast. A bit more organization and structure, then most rain would likely remain to the east of the low center. Dry air may also keep the bulk of the rain farther east as well. And in fact the probabilistic rainfall forecasts (takes into account various models and forecaster's input) calls for most of SE LA to receive anywhere from 3-5"+ over the next 7 days with higher totals, 10" toward the coast and east along the MS, AL, and FL beaches. Each day for the WWL viewing area will carry a risk for isolated flooding. And our daily forecast will carry somewhat of an unknown based on the future of the Gulf system.