Tuesday tropical update: Chance for Gulf system to develop

Chief Meteorologist Chris Franklin says Tuesday's tropical update shows the models not indicating development in the Gulf and NHC has lowered the potential. The forecast discussion is nearly identical to yesterday. Rain remains the big focus this week, however the confidence in rain coverage and accumulation remains low. While we continue to analyze a cluster of storms currently south of LA for possible development, the chance for development is lower. The Euro, which was slightly more aggressive with development has backed off and the NHC has lowered their probability to 20% for the next 3 to 5 days. The environment in the Gulf isn't conducive for a strong or organized tropical system, so that isn't really a threat. The real threat will be rainfall accumulations. Models are all over the place because we don't know: 1. if anything forms, 2. if it does, exactly where would it go, and 3. what would be the systems structure...where would most of the rain be? If it remains a sloppy and unorganized system, rain may be all over the northern Gulf coast. A bit more organization and structure, then most rain would likely remain to the east of the low center. Dry air may also keep the bulk of the rain farther east as well. And in fact the probabilistic rainfall forecasts (takes into account various models and forecaster's input) calls for most of SE LA to receive anywhere from 3-5"+ over the next 7 days with higher totals, 10" toward the coast and east along the MS, AL, and FL beaches. Each day for the WWL viewing area will carry a risk for isolated to scattered flooding. And our daily forecast will carry somewhat of an unknown based on the future of the Gulf system into the end of the week.