Tropical Update: Hurricane Sam To Remain A Major Storm!!

Tropical Update: Hurricane Sam To Remain A Major Storm!! watch https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvQh... #j7409 REMEMBER THIS CAN CHANGE...... Hurricane Sam The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, A subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of Sam will remain the primary steering mechanism over the next several days, and Sam is expected to maintain a northwestward heading through midweek. Then, a mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to dig southward over the western Atlantic late this week. The deep-layer southerly flow ahead of this feature should cause Sam to move faster toward the north-northwest by 96 h, followed by a northward acceleration thereafter. The NHC forecast track is shifted slightly to the right of the previous one through the first 48-60 h of the forecast period, which accounts for the more northwestward initial motion observed during the past 12 h. Otherwise, the NHC track is virtually unchanged as the guidance has remained fairly consistent. Sam's intensity has likely peaked now that an ERC has commenced, but environmental conditions should allow Sam to persist as a major hurricane for the next several days. Sea-surface temperatures are expected to be 28 deg C or greater along Sam's track through 120 h, and the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain weak 10 kt through at least midweek. Thus, the official NHC intensity forecast only shows very gradual weakening during the next several days, generally following the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Given the lower initial intensity of Sam, the latest NHC forecast is once again lower than the previous one. By 120 h, southerly shear associated with the deep-layer trough is forecast to increase over Sam, which should induce more weakening by this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 15.2N 51.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 15.9N 52.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 16.8N 53.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 17.7N 54.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 18.6N 55.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 19.6N 57.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 21.0N 58.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 24.9N 61.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 30.5N 62.0W 105 KT 120 MPH Disturbance 1,2,& 3 1. Satellite-derived wind data indicate an elongated area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Peter is located a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized since last night, and environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some further development of this system. Peter could briefly become a tropical depression again during the next day or two while it moves northeastward at about 10 mph. By midweek, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. 2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form around midweek while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 3. A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa later today. Upper-level winds are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. If you would like to donate for my work my paypal link is below. Thank You. https://www.paypal.com/biz/fund?id=76... SEND Pictures to [email protected] Anne Dale    / @annedalehomestead