Strengthening conflict prevention: Lessons learned from the pre-war period

The session 'Strengthening conflict prevention: Lessons learned from the pre-war period' was organized by SIPRI at the 2022 Stockholm Security Conference 'Battlefields of the Future: Trends of Conflict and Warfare in the 21st Century—Effects and Impact of the War in Ukraine'. #SthlmSecCon Before 24 February 2022, misjudgements and miscalculations were made. Russian calculations that the Ukrainian military was easy to defeat and that Western unity was easy to collapse were wrong. The Western belief that Russia was using military power to intimidate and would not cross the threshold of a full-scale invasion proved to be false. Before Russia’s most recent aggression against Ukraine, multiple meetings convened by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the United Nations monitored and discussed the deteriorating security environment and the Russian troop build-up around Ukraine. Confidence- and security-building measures and the OSCE presence on the ground in Ukraine were available to provide clarity around the unfolding preparations for invasion. The Russian annexation of the Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia alongside the earlier annexation of Crimea and Ukraine’s determination to recover sovereignty of all Ukrainian territory could create a ‘forever war’ in which outbreaks of fighting and escalating violence will be a permanent risk. This session looks at issues such as why information about invasion plans did not translate into effective countermeasures and consider how the risk of future war can be reduced and managed. Moderator: Ian Anthony, Director, European Security Programme, SIPRI Discussants: William Alberque, Director of Strategy, Technology and Arms Control, IISS Richard Gowan, United Nations Director, International Crisis Group Thomas Greminger, Ambassador; Director, Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) Andrew Michta, Dean of the College of International and Security Studies, Marshall Center Iuliia Osmolovska, Director, GLOBSEC Kyiv Office; Chairwoman, Transatlantic Dialogue Center (Ukraine) https://www.sipri.org/ Like:   / sipri.org   Follow:   / sipriorg   Connect:   / sipri