RUBLE ON THE VERGE OF COLLAPSE. Poland ready to invoke NATO's Article 4
PRO Money and Markets Plus - https://sponsr.ru/maksimzhuravlev/ TG channel - https://t.me/zabfin Lectures - https://t.me/+bcPYwmniA5thZTAy The video is devoted to the analysis of the current state of the ruble exchange rate and the factors influencing it. The channel host examines in detail recent events, including the sharp movement of the ruble above 85 rubles per dollar, and explains their relationship with geopolitical events (for example, UAVs in Poland), falling oil prices, soft monetary policy and changes in mandatory requirements for the sale of foreign exchange earnings. The topics of the Russian stock market, the impact of inflation and the possible consequences of changes in interest rates, as well as the prospects for creating an alternative financial infrastructure similar to SWIFT within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization are also touched upon. 00:00:00 Ruble exchange rate and economic factors 1. Discussed the current position of the ruble exchange rate against the US dollar, noting the recent movement above the level of 85 rubles per dollar, which occurred for the first time in a long time 2. Considered the factors influencing the decline of the ruble, among which were the geopolitical situation and the fall in prices for the Urals oil brand 3. It was noted that the closing of the ruble exchange rate below the 85 ₽ mark is a temporary support level that the market can hold for some time without significant external factors 00:01:24 Reduction of the key rate and economic stagnation 1. The decrease in the cost of oil amounted to about $57 per barrel relative to the average value of recent months (about $60\,50$ dollars) 2. The key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is expected to be reduced at the meeting on the 12th of this month to a level of about 16% per annum 3. Experts note the technical stagnation of the Russian economy, confirmed by the statements of the head Sberbank and the results of the Eastern Economic Forum 00:02:10 Sales of foreign currency earnings and the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate The government has canceled the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings The volume of sales of foreign currency earnings has significantly decreased over the period from August 2024 to August 2025 (a drop of 31%) The ruble exchange rate has fallen after the cancellation of the obligation to sell foreign currency 00:02:51 Russian stocks and cryptocurrency 1. The ruble has begun to lose ground against other currencies. An alternative is the cryptocurrency market 2. The Russian stock market is under pressure, growth prospects are in doubt due to the geopolitical situation 00:03:38 Provocations and geopolitical events Official Moscow considers the incident with drones over Poland as a provocation A pause in the introduction of sanctions against Russia by the United States is already in question (mention of the meeting between Trump and Putin). Russia, India and China are forming a new geopolitical center of influence 00:06:05 Europe's energy dependence on the United States 1. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced that work is underway to replace Russian gas with American LNG on the European market, the process is planned to be completed by 2027 2. Europe plans to abandon Russian energy resources almost completely by the end of 2026 3. Inflation in Russia is declining: monthly deflation (-0.4%) was recorded in August, the annual inflation rate decreased to 8.14% 00:07:52 Inflation and Russia's public debt 1. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced a forced increase in the country's public debt 2. Increased government spending and falling revenues raise concerns about rising inflation and the impact of additional public debt on the Central Bank of the Russian Federation rate 3. Fitch has raised its forecast for the price of gold and copper for the end of this year due to geopolitical instability and pressure on dollar 00:10:08 Alternative financial institutions and SWIFT Intention to discuss the creation of a development bank of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), which will become an alternative to Western financial institutions and will allow international payments using digital currencies and independent payment systems As part of this project, an office was opened in Vladivostok, where the A7 crypto ruble is used for settlements between large enterprises and international economic transactions The possibility of introducing new US and European sanctions against India and China related to the purchase of Russian oil is being discussed, which increases geopolitical risks and pressure on the Russian economy
