Tropical Depression threatens Texas with heavy rain - August 22 2023

#09L #tropicaldepression #tropicalcyclone #weather #update #flashflood #rain #special #tornado Latest position at 10 PM CDT is 25.7 degrees north, 93.3 degrees west. NHC’s newest wind analysis shows maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h at 12 AM UTC today. IR imagery shows a broad section of deep convection located in the center, with convective bands in the northwestern quadrant, though there isn’t a clear sign of good organization yet. Environmental analysis shows a very favorable environment for development, with very warm sea surface temperatures reaching up to 31 degrees celsius, and high ocean heat content approaching 75, and very low vertical wind shear reaching only up to 10 kts by now. As of 10 PM CDT today, a tropical storm warning is in effect from Mouth of Rio Grande to Port O’Connor, Texas. A tropical storm watch is also in force for Port O’Connor to Sargent, Texas. Currently, it is rather uncertain whether the storm will bring tropical storm force wind impact to Texas as it hasn’t intensified into a tropical storm yet, with preliminary probabilities stating around a 60% chance, though NHC’s forecast cone supports a peak of 75 km/h. Flash flooding is possible in the southern portions of Texas through Wednesday morning, with a slight chance reaching at least 15%, indicated by excessive rainfall outlook, which could be triggered by storm surge. Latest peak storm surge forecast indicated the storm could bring a maximum of 1 to 3 feet of storm surge to the coast from Mouth of the Rio Grande to Sargent. Dry areas along the coast could be flooded by rising waters, in combination with large waves. Tornadoes along the storm’s track could touch down later on Wednesday, with SPC’s newest outlook indicating around 2% marginal possibility. The depression could also bring heavy rainfall off the coast of Texas and the southern portions of the state, reaching as high as 6 inches in some areas, with the northern part of Mexico could experience up to 10 inches of rain as the storm moves further inland. More information will be provided by our shorts advisory at around 10 AM CDT tomorrow. For further information, please seek official info from the National Hurricane Center. #al092023 #092023