The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche, where disorganized showers and thunderstorms have increased. As of the latest NHC outlook, development chances remain low, but the system could move inland over eastern Mexico before possibly re-emerging over the northwestern Gulf early next week. In this update, filmed from the U.S. Virgin Islands, I break down what the NHC is watching, why conditions are only marginally favorable, and what this means for the Atlantic tropics as hurricane season begins to get going. Follow along throughout the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season for updates from the U.S. Virgin Islands: / @daleyweather The NHC listed formation chances at 20% through 48 hours and 20% through 7 days in its 2 p.m. EDT Friday, June 12 outlook hurricanes.gov #USVIWeather #TropicalWeather #HurricaneSeason2026