Gold price forecast: Will NFP trigger a $5,340 breakout?

Gold price analysis and Nonfarm Payrolls preview. We assess whether XAU/USD is poised to break the $5,340 resistance or whether a hawkish jobs report will send prices crashing back to $4,580. After a volatile year featuring a massive 30% rally followed by a steep 20% correction, Gold is trading at a critical tipping point. This week, the market focus shifts entirely to the US labor market data. With the Federal Reserve's interest rate path uncertain under Kevin Warsh's new leadership, the January Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be the deciding factor for the next major trend. Fundamental analysis suggests mixed signals. While ADP data showed a weak 22,000 job gain vs. the 48,000 forecast, and ISM Services Employment fell near contraction, the headline NFP is still expected to rise by 70,000. A strong beat could crush hopes for a June rate cut (currently at 51% probability) and strengthen the US Dollar, putting heavy pressure on Gold. Conversely, a negative surprise could reignite the bull run toward record highs. In this technical analysis, we break down two specific trading scenarios. Scenario One explores the bullish case targeting $5,340 if NFP misses expectations. Scenario Two outlines the bearish risk of a move down to $4,580 if the data surprises to the upside. Watch the full breakdown to prepare your levels before the volatility hits. #GoldPrice #NonfarmPayrolls #XAUUSD #fxstreet Chapters: 0:00 Intro 0:46 Gold price latest news 1:25 US macroeconomic fundamental analysis 2:28 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) most-likely scenarios 3:19 Gold price technical analysis and forecast after NFP 4:25 Outro Non-Farm Payrolls Preview by Dhwani Mehta | FXStreet ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👍 Hit the like button if you liked the video. 🔔 Subscribe for more daily news and updates Find more expert insights and updates on Crypto and Forex on our website: News: https://www.fxstreet.com/news Analysis: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis Economic Calendar: https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-cal... Cryptocurrencies: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurren... Broker reviews: https://www.fxstreet.com/brokers/reviews Best of the Year: https://www.fxstreet.com/brokers/best You can also join our Orange Juice Newsletter: Orange Juice: https://orangejuice.fxstreet.com/ And don't forget to follow us on Social Media: Instagram:   / fx_street   TikTok:   / fxstreet.com   Facebook:   / fxstreet   LinkedIn:   / fxstreet   X:   / fxstreetnews   Join our communities for real-time forex insights: Telegram - https://t.me/forexnews WhatsApp - https://www.whatsapp.com/channel/0029... 📲 Download our App to stay tuned on all news around the financial markets! Apple Store: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/fxstree Google Play Store: https://play.google.com/store/apps/de... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The information in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading Forex and other financial instruments involves significant risk of loss. FXStreet and the presenter do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this information and accept no liability for any losses arising from its use. The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of FXStreet or its partners.