The Last Ship Out of Hormuz: Why the REAL Supply Shock Is About to Hit | Rory Johnston

In Episode 474 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with commodity economist and energy market analyst Rory Johnston — founder of CommodityContext.com and host of the Oil Ground Up Podcast — about the mechanics and cascading consequences of the Strait of Hormuz closure, now entering its second month, and what the two most plausible resolution scenarios mean for energy prices, regional security, and the global economy. Recorded as part of an ongoing short-form series tracking the US and Israeli military campaign against Iran, the episode examines why the full physical impact of the supply disruption is only now reaching end markets across Asia, Europe, and North America, how the oil market is fracturing across both time and space, and why middle distillates — things like diesel and jet fuel — have become the epicenter of the crisis. Rory and Demetri also discuss how importing nations and companies are responding through emergency reserve releases, demand rationing, and accelerated behavioral changes. The conversation then turns to the long-term structural consequences of the shock — what it means for electrification and alternative energy adoption in Asia, for strategic stockpiling and supply chain resilience, and for non-OPEC production capacity across the US shale patch, Guyana, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina. They close by examining the geopolitical dimensions of the crisis, including the role of the Houthis, the risk of a secondary closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the possibility that Trump — having set off an open-ended conflict — may ultimately abandon long-standing US security commitments to the Gulf States, leaving the region in chaos. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at https://hiddenforces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. 00:00 Introduction 05:01 April 1 backdrop and Trump address 07:19 Why the US is relatively insulated 09:31 Where the market is fracturing 10:06 Hormuz closure math 11:57 Time and geography shockwave 14:42 Middle distillates at the center 17:40 Policy responses and long-term shifts 28:40 Shale Needs Price Signal 29:53 Guyana And Non OPEC Boom 30:29 Fortress Americas Supply 31:59 US Politics And Pump Prices 32:26 Carter Doctrine In Retreat 33:29 Houthis And Red Sea Risk 33:57 Bab El Mandeb Blockage Fallout 37:26 Houthi Incentives And Saudi Leverage 39:17 Trump Address Setup 39:54 Scenario One: Trump Talks It Down 46:12 Final Thoughts If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts at https://apple.co/3fLSIgR Write us a review on Spotify at https://spoti.fi/3tv4zYr Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Subscribe and Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Follow Hidden Forces on Twitter:   / hiddenforcespod   Follow Demetri on Twitter:   / kofinas   Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 04/01/2026