RBI Monetary Policy 2026: Repo Rate, Growth Rate, Inflation? Complete Analysis

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) concluded its first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of 2026 on February 6, 2026, opting to keep the key repo rate unchanged at 5.25%. Maintaining a "neutral" stance, the central bank upgraded India's economic growth outlook while marginally raising inflation projections due to rising precious metal prices. RBI Economic Projections (February 2026) Key Highlights of the February 2026 Policy Repo Rate & Stance: The repo rate remains at 5.25% following a cumulative 125 bps reduction throughout 2025. The SDF rate is fixed at 5.00%, while the MSF and Bank Rate stand at 5.50%. Growth Outlook (GDP): The real GDP growth forecast for FY 2025–26 was revised upward to 7.4% (from 7.3%). For the first half of FY 2026–27, growth is projected at 6.9% (Q1) and 7.0% (Q2). Inflation (CPI): The headline inflation projection for FY26 was nudged up to 2.1%. Future projections see inflation returning toward the target at 4.0% in Q1 FY27 and 4.2% in Q2 FY27. Regulatory Measures: To support small businesses, the limit for collateral-free MSME loans was doubled from ₹10 lakh to ₹20 lakh. Additionally, a new framework was proposed to compensate digital fraud victims up to ₹25,000 for small-value losses #rbi #bank #monetarypolicy