Tropics Becoming Active

Dexter formed along a stalled front in the western Atlantic. While it’s expected to stay out at sea (a "fish storm"), how long it holds together, and how much it modifies the Bermuda High, will be important. That high-pressure ridge helps steer tropical systems, so if Dexter adjusts its position even slightly, it could influence the path of the next system developing in the deep tropics. We will watch this week to see if this allows for the wave in the deep tropics to take an early exit north, about three-quarters of the ensembles suggest that. If the wave can miss that exit or develop later down the road, then the steering flow will push that wave much closer to the US. Thankfully, we have time to watch how this will play out. The stalled front isn’t done just yet. Another small area of spin is trying to organize near the southeastern U.S. coast. This system has a low chance of development (around 30%) over the next 4 days. The environment is marginally favorable, but time over water may be limited. If it develops, it would likely drift into the Carolinas by late week. Meanwhile, in the deep tropics… A new tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in the next few days. This system has caught the attention of several global models, which have hinted at gradual development. Still early, about 6 days out from even reaching the central Atlantic, and anything can change, but current odds sit around 50% for eventual development. This is the wave that, if it misses the early exit, then we will have to pay much closer attention to it. The long-range is already highlighting the next wave down the road as well. Best to not get caught up in long-range solutions this time of year. The reason for this is often that the models back off on waves as they get closer to developing. The farther out in time you go with weather models, the more errors you are watching play out and interact with each other. Remember that the GFS was only about 4% right with tropical creation, and the EURO not much better, around 10%. Many long range solutions will not happen, best to wait until there is a low to track or an area of intrest to watch before becoming too concerned. Always stay prepared, and a developing storm won't scare you.