Private Equity in 2026: Why “12 is the new five” | Bain & Company | Fund Shack Ep. 89

Private equity is entering a tougher operating environment where cheap debt and multiple expansion can no longer be relied on to deliver returns. In this episode of Fund Shack, Ross Butler speaks with Emilio Domingo, Partner in Bain & Company’s London office and Chief Commercial Officer for Bain’s EMEA Private Equity practice, about Bain’s latest private equity outlook, the idea that “12 is the new five”, and what it means for GPs, LPs and portfolio company management teams. In this episode, we cover: 🔹Why Bain says “12 is the new five” for private equity value creation 🔹Why buyouts may now need much higher EBITDA growth to deliver similar returns 🔹How revenue growth and multiple expansion have driven historical private equity returns 🔹Why margin expansion has been so difficult across the industry 🔹The rising importance of scale, specialisation and differentiated capabilities 🔹Whether the generalist mid-market buyout firm is under pressure 🔹How full potential diligence can shape stronger value creation plans 🔹Why speed matters in transformation and why time can kill returns 🔹The role of Chief Transformation Officers in portfolio companies 🔹How AI is changing investment teams, value creation teams and portfolio companies 🔹Whether AI will help emerging managers or reinforce the advantage of large platforms 🔹Why private equity-backed companies may have an edge in AI adoption 🔹The liquidity challenge facing private equity and LPs 🔹Why Emilio believes private equity remains a strong asset class 🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹 00:00 Why "12 is the new five" changes private equity 02:46 The new EBITDA growth challenge for buyouts 04:34 Why margin expansion has been so difficult 07:26 Why scale and specialisation are becoming critical 09:44 Private Markets Capability (Sponsor) 10:39 Value creation, governance and entrepreneurial management 12:57 The art of building a world-class value creation plan 15:51 The rise of the Chief Transformation Officer 17:23 How AI is changing private equity investing 20:53 Will AI favour emerging managers or the largest firms? 22:23 Why private equity could become the AI winner 23:41 Bain's outlook for the future of private equity 🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹 Guest bio: Emilio Domingo is a Partner in Bain & Company’s London office and Chief Commercial Officer for Bain’s EMEA Private Equity practice. In this role, Emilio drives the commercial agenda for Bain’s regional private equity practice, helping the firm bring its capabilities, solutions and products to financial investor clients. He previously led Bain’s UK private equity practice and has extensive experience across M&A, commercial and operational due diligence, business carve-outs, merger integration and value creation planning. His sector experience includes business services, technology and industrials. Emilio holds an MBA from INSEAD and a BA in Economics from the University of Navarra in Spain. 🔗 CONNECT on LinkedIn   / emiliodomingo   🌐 https://www.bain.com/industry-experti... 🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹 Host: Ross Butler is the founder and host of Fund Shack. He has worked around private capital for 25 years as a journalist, policy adviser and consultant, and is the author of Invest Like a Barbarian: Share in the Spoils of a Private Markets Revolution. 🔗 CONNECT on LinkedIn   / rossbutler1   🌐 www.fund-shack.com 🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹 📘 Order Ross Butler’s book 👉 Invest Like a Barbarian: Share in the spoils of the Private Markets revolution ♾️ http://q-r.to/Invest-Like-A-Barbarian #investlikeabarbarian 🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹 About our sponsor: Private Markets Capability for Wealth Advisers Clients are increasingly asking not only whether they should invest in private markets, but how private equity and private credit fit within a portfolio, what the liquidity trade-offs are and what the underlying risks actually look like. The PMC-Q50 was developed to help advisers test their preparedness before those conversations take place. The free assessment takes around 25 minutes and produces a personalised private markets capability profile. It identifies where knowledge is strong, where it may need sharpening and which areas should be prioritised next. Take the PMC-Q50 assessment. https://pmc-q50.scoreapp.com 🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹 Interested in joining Fund Shack as a guest or exploring sponsorship opportunities? Contact Katie at [email protected] to discuss upcoming episodes, editorial themes and partnership options.