Forecasters predict active Atlantic hurricane season
(4 Apr 2007) 1. Set-up shot of researcher William Gray and colleague sitting by computer 2. Computer screen showing recent evolution of hurricanes 3. SOUNDBITE: (English) William Gray, researcher at Colorado State University: "We're in this more active area for storms. We think that's driven by the Atlantic ocean thermohalien circulation, that's been strong since 1995 and we've had a lot of major storms. So we have that going. Also the Atlantic is very warm, the Atlantic is anomalously warm and the arrangements of surface pressure patterns are such as to call an active season. So all these factors sort of come up, we think we'll have a very active season." 4. Wide of Gray 5. SOUNDBITE: (English) William Gray, researcher at Colorado State University: "We're projecting 17 named storms, the average is about 10. We're predicting nine hurricanes, the average is six and we're predicting five major storms, that's category three, four, five storms. Those with maximum staying winds of 150 miles an hour or greater, we're projecting five of those, the average is about 2.5. So we think overall this season we're saying will be 175 percent of the long term average season." 6. Close-up of computer animation showing hurricanes STORYLINE: A researcher at Colorado State University on Tuesday predicted a "very active" hurricane season for the United States. "We're in this more active area for storms. We think that's driven by the Atlantic ocean thermohalien circulation, that's been strong since 1995 and we've had a lot of major storms," said William Gray. Gray said his team was predicting that at least nine category three, four or five hurricanes were likely to hit the US coast. "Those with maximum staying winds of 150 miles an hour or greater, we're projecting five of those, the average is about 2.5. So we think overall this season we're saying will be 175 percent of the long term average season," Gray said. The probability of a major storm making landfall on the U.S. coast this year is 74 percent, compared with the average of 52 percent over the past century, Gray said on Tuesday. The forecast, issued two months before the hurricane season starts, is virtually identical to the one Gray issued before the 2006 season, which turned out far quieter than he and others had feared. Last May, Gray's team forecast 17 named storms in 2006, including nine hurricanes, five of them major ones, and an 81 percent chance that at least one major hurricane would hit the US. Scientists with the National Hurricane Center and two other National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration agencies issued similar predictions. Gray's team said a late, unexpected El Nino contributed to the calmer season last year. El Nino, a warming in the Pacific Ocean, has far-reaching effects that include changing wind patterns in the eastern Atlantic, which can disrupt the formation of hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, averages 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes. Find out more about AP Archive: http://www.aparchive.com/HowWeWork Twitter: / ap_archive Facebook: / aparchives Instagram: / apnews You can license this story through AP Archive: http://www.aparchive.com/metadata/you...
