07.04.2022: Oil prices slide, RUB rallies - Outlook for oil, gold, and RUB.
Once it became clear that the European Union would not impose sanctions on Russian energy supplies, confining itself to vague statements about the inevitable adoption of such a decision in the future, oil prices instantly edged lower to $101 from $108 per barrel. In addition, the commodity market is still trading under pressure from the epidemiological situation in China, which is getting worse. This could result in a noticeable softening in demand, primarily for oil. If things do not change in the near future, oil prices will most likely fall below $100 per barrel. Now let’s take a look at the trading chart. A rebound from $110 per barrel returned the quote to the psychologically important level of $100, where Brent crude oil faced slight stagnation. In this situation, it is worth considering two trading tactics. The first one implies a breakout strategy. The 100 mark may well limit the pair’s downward movement, and the market will resume its bullish run. There are already signs of a rebound in the market, but a stronger signal will come when the price consolidates above the level of 104. Short positions will be relevant if the price breaks through the 100 mark and fixes below 99.50. In this case, the asset will head towards $98, the local low posted on March 16. As for gold, the situation remains unchanged. The yellow metal is still trading within a tight range limited by the levels of $1,920 and $1,940 an ounce. True, for the last two days, it has been steadily holding near the lower boundary of the range, with no attempts to advance to its upper boundary. Apparently, such dynamics indicate growing short interest. Thus, gold may well break below the range in the near future. The Russian currency continues to amaze. Not long ago, the ruble traded in the area of 83-84 rubles per dollar. Yesterday, it began to climb against the US dollar. Today, the currency has extended gains. In fact, in less than a day, the ruble has almost recovered to pre-war levels. Apparently, the decision to make foreign debt payments on dollar-denominated bonds in rubles acted as a driver. Moreover, the first ruble payment was transferred yesterday. Although Western countries expressed strong indignation and opposition to that step, no one dared to declare Russia's default on sovereign debt. This also supported the ruble. From a technical point of view, a shift in trading volumes resulted in a speculative blowout, which, in turn, led to a sharp decline in the dollar/ruble pair. At the same time, experts note that the market has gone into mild panic. Thus, it is impossible to say for sure that the downward cycle will continue. In other words, one should keep following the news flow as it is still the main driving force behind the ruble exchange rate. https://www.instaforex.com FX Analytics - https://www.instaforex.com/forex_anal... Forex Calendar - https://www.instaforex.com/forex_cale... Forex TV from InstaForex - https://www.instaforex.com/instaforex_tv Forex charts - https://www.instaforex.com/charts Instant account opening - https://www.instaforex.com/fast_open_... Forex Trading Contests - https://www.instaforex.com/forex_cont... List of official InstaForex blogs: / instaforex / instaforex / instaforex #commodity_market #oil #instaforex_tv 00:00 INTRO 00:22 OIL 00:46 BRENT 01:44 GOLD 02:20 USD | RUB
