"No Gurus, Only Cycles": A Pro Investor's Guide to Market Crashes
Want to learn tactical investing from an expert? Michael Gayed, Portfolio Manager at Toroso Investments, joins the Inspired Money podcast to share his core philosophy: "No Gurus, Only Cycles." In this in-depth guide to tactical investing and risk management, Michael explains why the traditional "buy and hold" strategy is failing retirees and what to do instead. He reveals the specific leading signals he uses for his "risk-on / risk-off" strategies, including the 3 ATAC strategies, the RORO signal (Lumber/Gold), and the JOJO signal (Utilities/Junk). This is more than just a finance lesson; Michael shares the powerful mindset shifts required to succeed. He discusses the psychology of FOMO, how to tell the difference between the sunk cost fallacy and perseverance, and his #1 rule for survival: "To kill it, you have to NOT get killed." We also cover how to use a "barbell approach" to add volatile assets like cryptocurrencies to your portfolio and the tough lessons Michael learned navigating the 2008 financial crisis. If you're ready to move beyond gurus and understand market cycles, this episode is for you. 🕒 Timestamps 🕒 0:00 - Intro: Tactical Investing for Market Corrections 0:24 - Michael's Core Philosophy: "No Gurus, Only Cycles" 1:05 - The Problem with "Buy and Hold" for Retirees 1:31 - The 3 ATAC Risk-On / Risk-Off Strategies 2:36 - Michael's First "Scheme": A Childhood Money Lesson 3:50 - Growing Up in the Investment Business 8:16 - Why "Work-Life Balance" Doesn't Exist for Entrepreneurs 10:41 - The Toughest Time: Losing His Father & the 2008 Crisis 11:36 - How to Reinvent Yourself After Hitting Rock Bottom 16:00 - Finding His Edge Through Obsessive Backtesting 17:53 - The Core Premise: "To Kill It, You Have to NOT Get Killed" 18:42 - The Key Signal He Learned From His Father: "Utilities Lead Stocks" 20:10 - Bad Luck: Launching a Risk-Off Fund Right Into QE3 23:29 - The Psychology of FOMO: Why Rejection Causes Physical Pain 26:42 - The "Tough 7 Years": How to Keep Going When Your Strategy Lags 28:27 - Sunk Cost Fallacy vs. Persevering: How Do You Know? 30:34 - "Doubt is a Necessary Precondition for Anything to Work" 32:01 - When to Pivot vs. When to Persevere as an Entrepreneur 36:13 - Why Launch ETFs (RORO & JOJO) vs. a Mutual Fund 38:09 - The RORO Signal (Lumber/Gold) & JOJO Signal (Utilities/Junk) 40:19 - Is the Lumber Signal Broken After 2021's Volatility? 44:26 - How Should Cryptocurrencies Fit in Your Portfolio? 47:22 - The "Barbell Approach" to Allocating Volatile Assets 48:46 - Michael Gayed's Definition of True Success 52:22 - Host Recap: Key Takeaways Show notes: http://www.inspiredmoney.fm/204 Inspired Money Podcast Livestream Series Unleashing the Power of Compound Interest https://youtube.com/live/9pVUFAbThVg Investing 101: Building a Strong Financial Foundation https://youtube.com/live/S4_3K0hnbsY Guest Bio: Prior to Toroso Investments, Michael was the Co-Portfolio Manager and Chief Investment Strategist at Pension Partners, LLC, an investment advisor managing mutual funds and separate accounts. He is the author of five award-winning research papers on market anomalies and investing. Michael was an active contributor to MarketWatch for a number of years and has been interviewed on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business, as well as the Wall Street Journal Live for his unique approach to interpreting market movements. Michael earned his Bachelor of Science degree with a double major in Finance & Management at NYU Stern School of Business. Michael became a CFA Charterholder in 2008. http://www.leadlagreport.com http://www.atacfunds.com / leadlagreport / michael-a-gayed-cfa 🎥 Episode Credits: Transmedia Producer: Bradley Jon Eaglefeather Editor: Ariel Lee Animator: Chad Lawrence Web Work & Social Media : Bradley Jon Eaglefeather ✉️ Subscribe to Andy's email newsletter for investment insights: https://www.runnymede.com/newsletter #tacticalinvesting #riskmanagement #investing #InspiredMoney #MichaelGayed #TheLeadLagReport #Eaglesvision
