Security Opportunities and Challenges in the Taiwan Strait

Military insecurity dilemmas clouds the Taiwan Strait. Once a venue for Cold War crises, the South China Sea has become the venue for a naval arms buildup that recalls pre-1914 Europe. Having undertaken a massive naval buildup, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army now commands what the U.S. Department of Defense calls the world’s largest navy: a battle force that includes approximately 350 ships and submarines. In an indication of purpose, China’s Eastern Theater Command has conducted major military exercises, including preparations for amphibious landings across the Strait. The Taiwanese government's most recent national defense report, completed in 2017, concluded that China poses an “enormous threat to security”--an assessment that has significant implications for Taiwan, regional security, and U.S. policy. Although the United States abrogated its Cold War-era commitment to Taiwan’s military defense in 1979, the United States has consistently affirmed its commitment to Taiwan’s security through arms sales, while maintaining "sufficient ambiguity" to avoid provoking a Chinese reaction. But the altered military balance today raises questions about the sustainability of "strategic ambiguity." Now that China’s naval capabilities rival America's, can the United States maintain a credible commitment to Taiwan’s security? Should it do so? If not, can Chinese ambitions be deterred? What are the risks of outright confrontation over the Taiwan Straits, and what might be the consequences for Taiwan, China, the United States, the Asia-Pacific region, and the world? 00:00 Start 00:00:20 Introduction by Daniel Sargent 00:06:34 Gary Sampson on Taiwan security: 10 years ago and now 00:18:09 Bonnie S. Glaser on Why Taiwan is important to the U.S.; and assessing non-military factors for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan 00:28:12 Robert L. Thomas, Jr. on Taiwan Strait challenges from a maritime practitioner's perspective 00:39:55 Discussion/Audience Questions Speaker Information: Bonnie S. Glaser, Director, Asia Program, The German Marshall Fund of the United States; Robert L. Thomas, Jr., Professor of Practice, School of Global Policy & Strategy, University of California, San Diego; Gary Sampson, Ph.D. Candidate, Tufts University's Fletcher School; Public Intellectuals Program Fellow, NCUSCR Follow the Institue of East Asian Studies on: → Facebook:   / ucberkeleyinstituteofeastasianstudies   → Twitter:   / ieas_berkeley   → Website: https://ieas.berkeley.edu/ Special Thanks to Our Fellow Event Sponsors: Center for Chinese Studies, Institute of International Studies, Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in San Francisco Original Event Info: Security Opportunities and Challenges in the Taiwan Strait Panel Discussion| April 27 | 12-1:30 p.m. | Online Zoom Webinar