Chinese invasion of Taiwan unlikely in short term: Japan scholar

A Japanese scholar says China is "extremely unlikely" to launch an attack on Taiwan in the short term. In an interview with Japan''s national broadcaster, the expert said that despite the low likelihood of cross-strait conflict, Japan, the U.S. and Taiwan must monitor the regional situation closely for any sudden changes. Taiwan has just wrapped up its five-day Han Kuang war games. In one drill, jets conducted an emergency landing on a Pingtung highway, simulating a response to an attack on Taiwanese military bases. Analysts say Taiwan''s asymmetric warfare capabilities are gradually maturing. But the PLA threat remains palpable, with its frequent incursions into Taiwan''s ADIZ and its string of live-fire drills in the region. Philip Davidson (March 2020) Then-commander of US Indo-Pacific Command Taiwan is clearly one of their ambitions. I think the threat is manifest during this decade, in fact within the next six years. In its 2020 defense report to Congress, the Pentagon underscored that China has never given up the use of force against Taiwan. It said that China''s plans against Taiwan could come in the form of maritime, air or cyber warfare. But according to one Japanese scholar, the cross-strait situation may have deteriorated, but China is unlikely to launch an attack on Taiwan in the short term. Ryo Sahashi University of Tokyo associate professor China''s People''s Liberation Army still has many limitations when it comes to its ability to seize Taiwan. Xi Jinping''s regime still faces many major political risks in the short term. If we assume that the probability of a successful seizure is extremely low, I don''t think China will take a gamble and stir up conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan is not the only country on guard against the Chinese threat. Japan, which is also positioned along the first island chain, says it will not be able to avoid involvement if conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait. Ryo Sahashi University of Tokyo associate professor Three countries hold the key to stability in the Taiwan Strait - that is the U.S., China and Taiwan. And the balance among these three countries has been gradually upset. All Japan can do is take preventative measures, and work with the U.S. to improve deterrence. Japan is clearly signaling that if anything happens, the U.S. and Japan will take joint action. The expert says China is extremely unlikely to launch an attack in the short term. But he says that as U.S.-China relations continue to fray, Taiwan, the U.S. and Japan must be ready to take action to avert conflict.