Liquidity Cycle Turning: What Happens When Refinancing Stops | Michael Howell

Michael Howell, managing director at GL Indexes and author of Capital Wars on Substack, joins us this week to break down the forces threatening global liquidity… and what they mean for your portfolio. Michael explains how four key drivers—central bank tightening, rising oil prices, a stronger US dollar, and surging bond volatility—are converging to drain financial liquidity by as much as 25%. He walks through the “debt-liquidity nexus” at the heart of the modern financial system, why the 65-month liquidity cycle is turning down, and how a massive debt maturity wall from the COVID era is about to collide with shrinking capital. And that just scratches the surface. Tune in now for the full conversation. By the way… You can subscribe to Michael Howell’s Substack, Capital Wars, here: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Sign up for Ed D’Agostino’s free newsletter here: https://www.mauldineconomics.com/glob... Follow Ed D’Agostino on LinkedIn:   / ed-d-agostino-415475296   Follow Ed D’Agostino on X: https://x.com/EdDAgostino _____________ Time stamps: 0:00 – Introduction and the impact of war on global liquidity 2:58 — Central banks’ dilemma 4:17 — Why raising interest rates may stimulate the economy 6:50 — The gold-to-oil ratio and what it signals 9:55 — Dollar strength and gold pricing 11:40 — Why gold is selling off despite inflationary pressures 13:07 — The declining liquidity cycle and the everything bubble 15:45 — What the next financial crisis looks like 18:41 — Are there safe havens in this environment? 21:40 — How Japan and China factor in 22:54 — The debt-liquidity nexus explained 27:02 — The debt maturity wall and repo market stress 30:28 — What bond markets are telling us about term premium 34:45 — The asset allocation cycle and why it’s time to go risk-off 39:34 — China’s monetary expansion and its role in driving gold prices