MARCH MADNESS BRACKET HELP: Final Four picks, Cinderella teams & 1st round upsets

March Madness is HERE! The brackets are out! Here at Bracket Breaker Central, we’re geeking out so badly, we can barely keep up with the reams of ticker tape Slingshot is spitting out. As always, we’ll have detailed analysis of every game with giant-killing implications in the lead-up to Thursday’s action, plus our annual lookahead at potential second-round Bracket Breaker matchups. But we wanted to get you some numbers right away. So, below, you’ll find the list of the top-10 most likely first-round upsets according to our statistical model. Speaking of Slingshot, we’ve spiffed it up this March. With the help of our outstanding team of Furman math professors – Liz Bouzarth, John Harris and Kevin Hutson – we have incorporated all kinds of bells and whistles into our model that we’ve written about before but never fully deployed. These include cluster analysis, more sophisticated measures of team pace and comparisons to similar games from the past. Our quick reaction: This field looks thrillingly friendly to upsets — more like 2021 than 2022. And in the coolest twist of fate we’ve seen since we started doing this in 2006, our professors’ home school reached its first NCAA tournament since 1980, and drew a matchup with a team our model pegs as the most vulnerable giant in the field. Madness, indeed. If you’re new here, this article from 2021 does a good job explaining how we look for upsets and what teams are more likely to pull them in March Madness. Top 10 most likely first-round upsets 1. No. 4 Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 13 Furman Paladins Upset chance: 39.3% 2. No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 11 Mississippi State Bulldogs If Mississippi State beats Pittsburgh in the First Four Upset Chance: 37.8% 3. No. 5 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 12 Drake Bulldogs Upset Chance: 31.4% 4. No. 4 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 13 Kent State Golden Flashes Upset Chance: 30.9% 5. No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 12 College of Charleston Cougars Upset Chance: 28.6% 6. No. 6 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 11 NC State Wolfpack Upset Chance: 27.8% 7. No. 5 St. Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 12 VCU Rams Upset Chance: 25.4% 8. No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs vs. No. 11 Arizona St. Sun Devils Upset Chance: 23.6% 9. No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 11 Pittsburgh Panthers If Pittsburgh beats Mississippi State in the First Four Upset Chance: 22.1% 10. No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 11 Providence Friars Upset Chance: 21.3% https://theathletic.com/4301211/2023/... Subscribe and ring the bell for the latest talk about the Cleveland Browns, Cleveland Guardians, Cleveland Cavaliers and Ohio State Buckeyes: https://bit.ly/ucss_subscribe Follow on Twitter:   / ultclesports   Watch live on YouTube 11 a.m.-1 p.m. weekdays on YouTube and WKYC+ on your Roku and Fire TV apps! The Ultimate Cleveland Sports Show is your daily source of the best conversation about the Cleveland Browns, Cleveland Guardians, Cleveland Cavaliers and Ohio State Buckeyes, as well as sports throughout Northeast Ohio. Hosted by Jay Crawford, Adam the Bull, G Bush, Jason Lloyd, Brad Sellers and Tyvis Powell. #marchmadness #ncaa