China in the Indian Ocean: Evolving Doctrines, Presence and Implications

Speakers: Vice Adm. Pradeep Chauhan, Vice Adm. Anil Chopra, Cmde. Gopal Suri & Amb. Nalin Surie Abstract: China has been greatly expanding its footprint in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) in recent years. China now considers its emergence as a maritime power and protection of overseas interests as strategic priorities. In the Chinese White Paper on military strategy released in May 2015, there was a major change in the focus of the PLA Navy with addition of “open seas protection” to its existing role of “offshore waters defence”; protection of overseas interests was identified as a major strategic task of the Chinese Navy. This doctrinal shift, the rolling out of the Maritime Silk Road initiative with its network of ports controlled by Chinese entities, rapid buildup of the PLA Navy and its assets, major reforms and modernisation underway in the Chinese military, militarisation of reclaimed/augmented features in South China Sea, near continuous naval presence and regular submarine deployments in the IOR, development of its first overseas facility and deployment of the PLA Marines at Djibouti, and other actions taken by China are progressively resulting in a much greater and more permanent presence of the Chinese Navy in the Indian Ocean. China’s influence is also on the rise in our neighbourhood countries of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar, while the Sino-Pak ‘all weather’ strategic partnership gathers further strength with projects like the China Pakistan Economic Corridor and the Gwadar Deep Sea Port. China is also investing heavily in maritime infrastructure in the region. It is likely to establish additional logistics hubs or bases in the IOR, apart from Djibouti. At the same time, China also has its vulnerabilities in the Indian Ocean. The strategic contestation between China and the USA has become more explicit and sharper, and it is likely to play out in the maritime sphere as well. The roundtable discussion will examine these developments and trends, deliberate on the likely trajectory of China’s engagement with the IOR, and assess the implications of China’s expanding presence in the Indian Ocean on India and its centrality in this ocean. The panelists will explore measures India may take in response to China’s growing activities in the IOR and also discuss possible areas for cooperation with China in the maritime domain.