வடகிழக்கு பருவ மழை 2022 சிறப்பு முன்னோட்டம் #tamil #வானிலை #வானிலை_அறிக்கை #tamilnadu #NEM2022

North East Monsoon-2022 Outlook - MasRainman (RainmanStudio) This is my Personal Forecast for Official* forecast pls follow Govt & (IMD) Official Agencies. A best year Continuing form last 2020, 2021 & 2022 (SWM) now we are stepping in to NEM 2022. This Year Continued with Negative IOD & Lanina again which gave Best South west Monsoon Memories. Almost 95 to 97% Districts have Got their Normal to Above Normal rains from June to September 30th. Almost Recorded a Top 3 Excess monsoon years in Tamilnadu History. NEM 2022 - Analysis This Year Analog Trends Like 1964 1998 2008 2010 2020 & 2021. Enso (Lanina) & Strong Negative IOD (Devoloving) SOI super strong and Devolving MJO(VP), ER & Kelvin also matching with 2020 & 2021 SST in bay Trending with 28-30 Degrees which can influence good no of systems (Cyclones,DD,LPA) (Strong Negative IOD means always we cannot expect large no of cyclones-we can expect more systems & intensity Varies) QBO is in Westerly Phase - LEss Windshear which always supports the system to get intnsify. AO less in intensity as per global models - Means Western Disturbance will not dip much. (As my view - late Nov to Dec it may dip in low Latitude) ITCZ is in Above LAt from its normal position and it will descend in late as the result more sytems will target North TN to South AP (OR) Central AP. Its just a one Factor of High Lat system. Sytem Genesis will Decide the Fate of NEM because active West PAcific to be watched which can throw pulses to Lower LAt Or Lat. Expected Current MJO phase ends 3,4 & 5 and re- emerge in phase in Nov which will boost NEM in South Peninsular. Back trap of Lanina we can expect STW (Standing Wave Conditions) this year too like 2020 & 2021. As per my view Almost Systems can Take NW/WNW tracks mostly & IPR (Indo Pacific Ridge Support) Active Conditions may influence 2 to 3 Cyclones in Bay (Or) 2 Depressions, 2 to 3 LPA and Circulations. NEM 2022 Onset Probably can hit Tamilnadu & AP coast by 20 to 26 of October 2022. Exces Rainfall Expected in Andhpradesh & Telangana Normal to Excess for North TN & Delta.Near Normal for Central & Western Tamilnadu. South TN May end Normal & Subject to Low Latitude Systems. All Over TN may get Normal NEM this year. Over All Good Monsoon Year Ahead for South Peninsula. KTCC - #Chennai #KAnchipuram #Thiruvallur #Chengalpattu #Pondy #Vilupuram and rest of North TN will get Normal Monsoon Rains this year. Excessis subject to Sytems movement. Further Details have explained clearly with Presentation in Video Format :-