Rapid intensification: "Most urgent problem in hurricane forecasting."

#hurricane #weather #forecasting Rapid intensification is the increase of the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 kt in a 24 hour period. Tropical storms and hurricanes alike keep rapidly intensifying as they near the United States coast ahead of landfall. The sudden increase in strength can dramatically increase the effects of storm damage -- sometimes catching residents off-guard. While the forecast track of hurricanes and other tropical systems is increasing, more work is needed to better forecast the strength of these systems throughout their projected lifespan. Understanding the potential for risk, and communicating that effectively to the public, is a balance of fact and probability for meteorologists, emergency managers, and broadcasters. In 2020, Tropical Storm Bertha seemingly appeared out of nowhere when it spawned, grew, and rapidly intensified off the coast of South Carolina. The storm went from nothing to landfall before most people even knew it existed. The topic of conversation was revisited Monday during coverage of Tropical Storm Danny, which while projected for several days, went from undeclared to a tropical depression, to a tropical storm making landfall in the same day. In 2017, hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria all underwent rapid intensification. The rapid intensification, unfortunately, increased the magnitude of storm damage, injury, and death. Some key ingredients for rapid intensification are high sea surface temperatures, excess ocean heat content (a measure of the water temperature below the surface), and low vertical wind shear. Warm waters go hand-in-hand with warm, humid air, and both provide vital energy and moisture for hurricanes. Vertical wind shear is the difference in the speed and direction of lower level and upper level winds. High shear rips the tops off of developing hurricanes and weakens them, while low shear allows storms to build. SUBSCRIBE TO OUR PODCAST: https://anchor.fm/carolinaweather SUPPORT US ON PATREON:   / carolinaweathergroup   VISIT OUR WEBSITE: https://carolinaweathergroup.com The Carolina Weather Group operates a weekly talk show of the same name. Broadcasting each week from the Carolinas, the show is dedicated to covering weather, science, technology, and more with newsmakers from the field of atmospheric science. With co-hosts across both North Carolina and South Carolina, the show may closely feature both NC weather and SC weather, but the topics are universally enjoyable for any weather fan. Join us as we talk about weather, environment, the atmosphere, space travel, and all the technology that makes it possible.