EAST COAST WEATHER UPDATE --- SEE VIDEO (18/8/25)

EAST COAST WEATHER UPDATE 🎥 --- The ECMWF is the favourable model as of late and paints a better picture of rainfall distribution than most models for the days ahead 📈 Between now and Saturday, we also see the GFS indicate to the heaviest rainfall hitting the MNC and Northern Rivers of NSW, with the varying models (including Access GEM and ICON), pointing to varying pockets of intense rainfall in and off the coastline between Sydney and the Gold Coast 💦⚠️ The BoM has reduced its 100mm+ forecast compared to yesterday, but still sees considerable rainfall etching the coastline near the Illawarra and NENSW region 👌 Rainfall totals across the regions 100-150mm+ rainfall in general, is now 'less likely' along the East Coast between now and Saturday. But still likely to occur, more so on the Mid North Coast and in parts of the Northern Rivers 💦❗️ We are still looking at widespread 50mm+, which will be most appreciated. West of the Divide in Northern NSW and Southern QLD 💦🌱 The ECMWF even points to 80mm+ along the Divide BRISBANE & SYDNEY are still looking at 50mm+ by Saturday, with more of the rainfall occurring mid week rather than Friday/Saturday 💦✅️ 40-50mm is to be more so expected on the South Coast of NSW and anywhere north of Brisbane in SEQLD ☔️ --- As of this morning (Monday 18/8/25) This weeks Rainfall kicked of this morning in Sydney as brisk, southerly onshore began to track north between this weeks High Pressure in SE Australia and the coastal trough that is forming along the NSW coast line According to the BoM Synoptic, High Pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern in the southeast with a heightened frost potential for those inland (Tonight/Tuesday morning ❄️) An upper level disturbance associated with a Low in Northern NSW will interact with the coastline this evening, leading to a sustained weather pattern where icreased moisture finds itself blocked by the forementioned High. This weather pattern expected to gain in intensity as the week goes by 💦🌬 *** No ECL 🚫🌀 is anticipated to form during the week, and conditions are now set to ease late Friday and into Saturday, so most widespread rainfall is expected to occur before the weekend with the exception of the MNC and Northern Rivers that could see additional falls surpass localities into the 100mm+ bracket The high pressure system that makes its way into the Tasman is an exceptionally strong one, with the BoM model even raising its strength well beyond 1040 HPA. Although August is the typical month for seeing a peak in High Pressure strength, the value of 1048 would far surpass last years record of 1044.6HPA --- Approaching Saturday (23/8/25) • Rainfall will fall steadily along the NSW coast line Monday into Tuesday, with Wednesday seeing more widespread and intensified falls along the coast and into Northern NSW 💦 • By Thursday, the South Coast, Central Coast, Upper Hunter and MNC will see heavy rainfall pickup with such moving into northern NSW, Southern and SEQLD Thursday night and throughout most of Friday 🌧🌬 • Conditions for SEQLD will ease Friday night with pontential storms even lingering in the wake of Thursday falls ⛈️ • The MNC and Northern Rivers will see rainfall ease a little later on Saturday as the High in the Tasman Weakens and the weather shifts ahead of a front further to the west 🌧➡️ --- Images and clips are supplied by Meteologix, Bureau of Meteorology, ABC, Windy & Weatherzone Stay tuned with Weatherman Dan for more content and updates ℹ️ #aussieweather #severeweathernsw #MidNorthCoastNSW #northernnsw #seqld #severeweather #southerncoastnsw #lismore #coffsharbour #sydney #goldcoast #brisbane