Referendum gamble will define legacy of EU’s Cameron

(19 Jun 2016) It's often said that David Cameron is a lucky politician who has seemed to coast through politics on instinct and charm during a career that has culminated in six years as British prime minister. But now his luck may be running out. In calling a referendum on Britain's membership in the European Union, Cameron has taken a gamble that could end his career - and take his country out of an international alliance it joined more than 40 years ago. It would be a rare but fateful miscalculation for a politician who has a reputation for thriving under pressure and astutely judging political risks. "I think he's actually been pretty stunned by the strength of the 'leave' cause," said Cameron biographer James Hanning. "The golden rule is, never hold a referendum unless you're confident of winning it, and I think he thought that the moderate voices would prevail by some distance. But that's not the way the polls are suggesting it's going to go." The referendum campaign has been unexpectedly bitter and divisive, and was brought to a shocked halt when Labour lawmaker Jo Cox was shot and stabbed to death in the street last week. Both sides suspended campaigning out of respect for Cox, amid fears that the political fury unleashed by the EU campaign was somehow connected to the killing. Before Cox died, opinion polls had shown surging sentiment in favor of leaving the 28-nation union. A majority of supporters of Cameron's Conservative Party said they would vote to quit the bloc in Thursday's referendum. That's bitter news for Cameron, who called the referendum to puncture growing support for the anti-EU U.K. Independence Party and placate the strongly Eurosceptic right wing of the Conservatives. When he promised the referendum, in 2013, Cameron said it would "settle this European question in British politics" once and for all. He told voters he would forge a new deal between Britain and the EU that would make remaining an attractive prospect. At a Brussels summit in February, he won changes to welfare benefits that he said would reduce immigration and an exemption for Britain from the EU's commitment to "ever-closer union" - a phrase that stirs images of a European super-state in some patriotic British hearts. But many voters have proved resistant to Cameron's message that Britain is stronger, safer and more economically secure within the EU than it would be outside it. The concessions he gained have been dismissed as paltry by "leave" campaigners, who say they will do little to limit immigration from other EU nations because the bloc guarantees free movement among member states. It's a subject that resonates with many voters, who have seen hundreds of thousands of people come to Britain over the past decade from new EU members in Eastern Europe. (Hundreds of thousands of Britons also live in other EU countries, a less remarked-upon fact). Far from healing Conservative divisions over Europe, the referendum has exacerbated them. Cameron has led the "remain" campaign, but let Eurosceptic members of his Cabinet call for a "leave" vote. As a result, senior Conservatives, including former London Mayor Boris Johnson and Justice Secretary Michael Gove, have spent months attacking him. Tory leader for a decade and Prime Minister since 2010, Cameron has vowed to stay in office if there is a "leave" vote. But many feel he will have little choice but to resign quickly, with a pro-Brexit figure like Johnson or Gove his likely successor. Find out more about AP Archive: http://www.aparchive.com/HowWeWork Twitter:   / ap_archive   Facebook:   / aparchives   ​​ Instagram:   / apnews   You can license this story through AP Archive: http://www.aparchive.com/metadata/you...