US Newspapers - Regional election will open new phase in catalan conflict

US Newspapers - Regional election will open new phase in catalan conflict The major proindependence parties will not stand for election with a unified list, as they did at the 2015 regional election, with the Catalan Republican Left ERC set to become the largest party in the regional parliament. Amid considerable uncertainty, opinion polls point to broadly stable support of just under 50% for proindependence parties. Nonseparatist parties may win a small majority of votes, although there is a risk of a shift of public opinion in favour of nationalist formations. Even a narrow victory for unionists would be likely to yield a majority of seats for separatist parties, owing to the electoral system in the region, which overrepresents the more strongly proindependence rural areas. This implies that the national government will come under pressure after the election to negotiate on constitutional reform with a separatist regional government, most likely headed by the ERC. The most probable outcomes are a prolonged stalemate if talks become deadlocked or, possibly, a compromise on constitutional reform. The proindependence parties bargaining position will be stronger if they win a majority of votes. The political climate in Catalonia remains tense ahead of elections to the regional parliament on December 21st amid the jailing on remand of seven former members of the ousted regional executive and the issuance of an international warrant for the arrest of five others, including the former regional president, Carles Puigdemont. Nonetheless, all of the main political parties are set both to participate in the regional election and to recognise the legitimacy of the results. Opinion polls point to entrenched voter intentions For the moment, opinion polls detect a modest decline in support for the proindependence parties. Having won a combined 47.8% of the popular vote in 2015, support has eased back to 45.9% in recent weeks, according to a simple average of voting intentions in five recent opinion polls. We remain of the view that polls should be treated with some scepticism in the current political climate. The temporary suspension of home rule in Catalonia—approved by the Spanish Senate the upper house of parliament on October 27th under Article 155 of the constitution—and the placement under precautionary custody of Catalan ministers on charges of rebellion for planning and proclaiming a new republic have the potential to trigger a surge of support for proindependence parties. Even so, voter intentions are deeply entrenched the vote share of the proindependence parties has summed to 47‑49% of the popular vote in every regional election since 1999. Even if nonsecessionist parties retain a narrow majority of Catalan voters, they are unlikely to win a majority of seats in the next parliament. This reflects the design of the electoral system, which overrepresents rural, conservative areas where support for independence is strongest and underrepresents the more workingclass and liberal urban areas in and around Barcelona. The separatist parties won 53% of the parliamentary seats 72 deputies in the 135‑member assembly in the 2015 regional election—which was framed as a de facto referendum on independence, and saw high turnout of about 75%—with just 47.8% of the popular vote. Three of the five most recent opinion polls indicate that the proindependence parties will retain a parliamentary majority in December. Performance of unionist parties hinges on turnout The fortunes of unionist parties will hinge on voter turnout. Although the proindependence constituency has been highly mobilised for several years, political activism has been weaker among Catalonias proSpanish voters, and their abstention rates in regional elections have been historically much higher. This could be changing, as witnessed by the largescale prounity demonstrations in Barcelona in recent weeks. As Spanish media have awoken belatedly to the seriousness of the political crisis in Catalonia, it is likely to provide unprecedented coverage of the Dec... http://c.newsnow.co.uk/A/2/910219948?...