Checkout our advertising sponsor the Economist and get access to global coverage at an exclusive 35% discount at https://economist.com/moneymacro Recommended follow-up articles: How Iran is making a mint from Donald Trump’s war https://www.economist.com/finance-and... All sides in the Gulf war are at risk of overplaying their hands: https://www.economist.com/middle-east... In the current Gulf war, water may prove as decisive as oil: https://www.economist.com/middle-east... If you appreciate the research, consider buying me a 'coffee' at https://ko-fi.com/moneymacro or supporting long-term for membership benefits via: / moneymacro WANT AN IN-DEPTH INDUSTRIAL POLICY MASTERCLASS? △ https://school.moneymacro.net/p/indus... LIKE CHATTING ECON WITH ME? △ Follow me on Twitter: / joerischasfoort △ Follow me on LinkedIn: / joeri-schasfoort △ I have a private Discord server for Senior and Chief economist Patrons / members. SOURCES: I've linked my sources in the blog that goes along with this video. Links are in the text. https://www.moneymacro.rocks/blog Timestamps: 0:00 - introduction 4:00 - scenario 1 7:00 - scenario 2 14:00 - scenario 3 Attribution: Music by Epidemic Sound: http://nebula.tv/epidemic Thank you to AP Archive for access to their archival footage. Stock footage and others clips by Getty Narrated and produced by Dr. Joeri Schasfoort