Understanding The US-Israel-Iran War: Where Does India Stand

US strikes under Trump target Iran’s nuclear program, missiles, navy, drones, and proxies, nearing completion for a victory declaration; regime change is desirable but Iranian-led. Israel expanded from missile/nuclear delays (post-2025 war) to hit IRGC, police, and oil sites for regime overthrow, aligning partially with US but risking divergence if chaos ensues. No US ground troops planned; special ops possible, avoiding Iraq-style pitfalls. New leader Mojtaba Khamenei (Ali’s son, ex-IRGC) faces controversy, prioritizing defense amid corruption claims and targeting risks. Regime collapse could yield “IRGCistan” military rule, heightened threats, or sanctions-relief deals; opposition like Reza Pahlavi pushes transitions, but strikes on Tehran fuel mixed public anger. Protests loom post-bombing, with 70 internal activists forming councils. Iran’s ~440kg 60% enriched uranium stockpile (mostly Isfahan) risks rogue access in chaos; no radiation leaks yet, but unsecured amid strikes. Homeland threats include Iranian plots (e.g., vs. Trump), proxies (Hezbollah, Houthis), cyber, or lone wolves; FBI/DHS alert high. US munitions drain affects China/Ukraine readiness. Oil at $90/barrel from Hormuz halts spikes US gas/groceries; groceries rise via diesel costs, challenging Fed rate cuts. LNG shortages boost unsanctioned Russian exports; sanctions relief aids Moscow’s Ukraine war funding. China resilient via reserves/EVs, gains from US Pacific diversions. Houthis may hit shipping/Israel, risking Yemen war restart; Gaza sees Hamas weakened sans Iran aid. Gulf seeks US defenses amid attacks; Kurds could aid unrest but spark separatism backlash. Russia benefits short-term from oil/sanctions ease; expansion risks draw Gulf states.