Other Videos You Might Like • REDEMPTION - The 2025 Baltimore Ravens Wil... • REDEMPTION - The 2025 Baltimore Ravens Wil... • REDEMPTION - The 2025 New England Patriots... As the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves prepare for Game 4 at the Target Center in Minneapolis, the series hangs in the balance. After two commanding Thunder victories at home, the Timberwolves responded with a resounding 143-101 win in Game 3, shifting momentum and shifting the series score to 2-1 in favor of Oklahoma City. This game is pivotal—either the Thunder regain control and move within one win of the NBA Finals, or the Timberwolves even the series and turn the pressure back on the top seed. Series Recap and Context The Thunder entered the Western Conference Finals as the clear favorites, having posted a dominant 68-14 regular season record and breezing through the early rounds of the playoffs. They won the first two games against Minnesota by a combined 41 points, suffocating the Timberwolves with elite defense and efficient offense led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA), who averaged over 30 points per game in the series’ opening contests. However, Game 3 was a different story: Minnesota, backed by a raucous home crowd, exploded from the opening tip, winning the first quarter 34-14 and never looking back. Anthony Edwards led the charge with 30 points, 9 rebounds, and 6 assists, while Julius Randle added 24 points. The Timberwolves dominated every facet of the game, outrebounding the Thunder by 19 and dishing out 11 more assists. Key Storylines Entering Game 4 Momentum Shift: Game 3 was a statement win for Minnesota, but the question now is whether it was a one-off or the start of a genuine shift. The Timberwolves must prove they can replicate their intensity and execution, while the Thunder need to rediscover their identity and composure. Home Court Advantage: Minnesota is now 5-1 at home in these playoffs. The Target Center crowd has been a major factor, and the Timberwolves will look to feed off that energy again. Star Performances: SGA had a rare off night in Game 3, scoring just 14 points on 4-of-13 shooting. The Thunder’s supporting cast was also largely ineffective, with no other player scoring more than 12 points. In contrast, Edwards and Randle were outstanding for Minnesota, and their continued production is crucial for the Timberwolves’ chances. Coaching Adjustments: Minnesota’s Chris Finch made key adjustments in Game 3, emphasizing physicality, ball movement, and defensive intensity. Oklahoma City’s Mark Daigneault must now counter with his own adjustments, particularly in how to free up SGA and get more from role players. Rebounding and Ball Movement: The Timberwolves’ dominance on the boards and in assists was a major factor in Game 3. Oklahoma City must improve in both areas to avoid being outworked again. Statistical Trends and Betting Outlook Series Odds: The Thunder are 3-point favorites in Game 4, with the over/under set at 218.5 points. Oklahoma City is -150 on the moneyline, while Minnesota is +125. Against the Spread: Oklahoma City is a league-best 59-34-4 against the spread this season, while Minnesota is 47-47-1. Betting Models: The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has been highly accurate this postseason and currently favors the Thunder to cover the spread. Historical Trends: Teams down 2-0 in a series who win Game 3 at home are 51-43 straight up and 49-44-1 against the spread in Game 4. Home underdogs in Game 4 of the conference finals are 10-6 straight up and 12-3 against the spread. Over/Under: The over has hit in 11 of the last 16 Game 4s in the conference finals when the home team is the underdog. Key Players to Watch Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves): Edwards is the emotional and offensive engine for Minnesota. After a rough start to the series, he bounced back with a stellar Game 3. His ability to attack the rim, create for others, and defend at a high level will be crucial. Julius Randle (Timberwolves): Randle’s scoring and physicality were key factors in Game 3. He must continue to provide secondary scoring and help on the boards. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder): SGA is the MVP candidate and leader of the Thunder. After a quiet Game 3, expect him to come out aggressive and look to reassert his dominance. Jalen Williams (Thunder): Williams has been a consistent contributor throughout the playoffs, averaging 19.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 5.4 assists per game. His versatility and playmaking will be vital for Oklahoma City. Mike Conley (Timberwolves): Conley’s veteran leadership and outside shooting are essential for Minnesota’s offense. He hit two three-pointers in Game 3 and will need to continue stretching the floor.